The Post-Napsterization Era: What Will Music Look Like in Another 10 Years?

 Last week the Pew Internet & American Life Project released a fascinating overview of the history and current state of the online music industry, 10 years after the birth of Napster. The full report is well worth a read, but here are some of the highlights:

• Consumers have demonstrated that they’ll generally get what they want when it comes to the digital music world, and they want their music to be free (or almost free), portable, mobile, varied (access to any song ever recorded), and remixable

• While digital sales have grown, they still make up only about a fifth of total album sales. However, 15% of adults admit to using P2P applications to download files – and the number of computers with P2P software installed keeps increasing.

• The recording industry failed miserably in their approach to digitalization. They should have turned a threat into an opportunity by buying Napster, but instead they tried to battle with lawsuits that didn’t work. Clearly people are still illegally downloading music.

• The demographics of music buyers were shifting before Napster’s launch. There was a noted decrease in music-buying by the 20-24 year old set noted in early 1999.  Research showed that music was still important to this demo, but at the time there was a disconnect between the importance of music in their lives and their need to own it.

• Most artists did not see P2P applications as a true threat to the industry. In fact, many of them choose to capitalize on it and were quite successful, such as Nine Inch Nails and Radiohead.

• DRM is dying, as indicated by the fact that Apple stopped using it with iTunes downloads at the end of 2008.

The point that I found most interesting, however, was the last paragraph:

“Looking ahead, as users’ engagement with cloud computing activities becomes more pervasive and seamless, there may come a time when the difference between downloading and streaming music files becomes moot….As more and more internet users acquire smart phones and high-speed wireless connectivity improves, music consumers get ever closer to the “celestial jukebox” dream of any song at any time that started during the days of Napster…Ultimately, whether you’re storing a library of music files on your home computer or streaming songs through your iPhone, it all becomes the same: instant access to the music you want.”

The concept of ownership is changing in our digital world. Historically, the definition of possession was rooted in tangibility. I knew that I owned a book because the paper copy resided in my bookcase, and I knew that a CD belonged to me because I could hold it in my hand. However, the content itself was not inherently tangible – only the medium in which it was packaged. If I don’t have a physical copy of a song, what defines my ownership of it? There are a few aspects, but the primary one is that I can listen to it whenever I want, in whatever form I want. I can play a song on my computer, on my iPhone, or on a burned CD in my stereo. I control when and how the content is delivered to me. That is the fundamental difference between downloaded and streaming music today.

However, as the report states, it is a logical conclusion that as technology continues to improve that divide may no longer need to exist. There will come a time when technology will be a virtual jukebox: I can listen to any song I want, as many times as I want, with only a click of a button. I won’t be limited to a library of songs that I’ve individually downloaded, or a streaming service with limited playbacks. Music discovery applications (such as Pandora today) will allow me to be as hands-on or hands-off as I wish in my listening choices. The concept of music ownership will cease to exist because I will have access to every song ever recorded, in whatever form I wanted.

Music has been heading in that direction for some time, and many subscription model services like Rhapsody and the current incarnation of Napster already look like an early form of this vision. However, there is still quite a distance to go, particularly impeded by legal issues with the record companies. Therefore a clear distinction between streamed and downloaded music still exists today.

The music industry may change in a completely different way by 2019. It will certainly require a business model that consumers, music services and record companies all agree upon. But regardless of what form it takes, music will contain to be an integral part of our culture, and the users control the game. The technology will adapt itself however we see fit.

Comments

[Polatlı]

Good post. I like to read your posts. well written. thank you.

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Thank you Phil for the coverage. It would indeed be great to meet on Tuesday evening and discuss your experience.
This post too really i enjoyed going through it with regards.